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大摩首席经济学家邢自强认为，Token出海肯定是有空间的，但不要过度吹捧中国的开源大模型、Token出海借助电力优势，而忽视了地缘政治与安全考量。
When these physical bypasses fail, the economic impact is deeply unequal, punishing import-reliant nations across the globe. From the industrial hubs of Germany and South Korea to the emerging markets of India and Southeast Asia, the suffering follows a brutal feedback loop: skyrocketing energy costs trigger domestic inflation, which forces central banks to keep interest rates high, strangling industrial manufacturing and devaluing local currencies. This isn’t just a market fluctuation; it is a direct threat to the standard of living for billions who are now at risk of energy poverty and economic stagnation. As the geography of the Middle East becomes a permanent bottleneck, it is clear that being “Hung up on Hormuz” is the terminal failure of a resource model that has an over-reliance on territory over technology.